NFL playoff picture Week 15: Cowboys tumble despite sealing spot, Bills surge

Every week for the duration of the 2023 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide real-time updates to the league's ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon's late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the schedule (through Thursday's game or Saturday's, if applicable).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference's seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday night, Jan. 7.

Here's where things stand with Week 15 of the 2023 season nearly complete:

AFC playoff picture

1. Baltimore Ravens (10-3), AFC North leaders: The first AFC club to 10 wins, Baltimore's next three contests will come against division leaders. But thanks to Saturday's outcomes − losses by Denver and Pittsburgh – the Ravens need to simply win Sunday night at Jacksonville to lock up the AFC's first berth. A loss means Miami moves back into the top spot by virtue of what would be a better conference record (7-3). Remaining schedule: at Jaguars, at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers

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2. Miami Dolphins (10-4), AFC East leaders: They got back on track by grounding the Jets on Sunday. But now a team that doesn't own a win over anyone with a winning record in 2023 hits the serious part of its season with three formidable opponents approaching. Still, win out, and the Fins clinch home field and the bye. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, vs. Bills

3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5), AFC West leaders: A 7-2 record in AFC games and wins over Miami and Jacksonville keep K.C. viable to play a sixth consecutive AFC title game at Arrowhead Stadium. But the Chiefs probably need to run the table ... and can after a fairly comfortable win at New England on Sunday. Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, vs. Bengals, at Chargers

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5), AFC South leaders: They've lost two in a row and three of five ... meaning they're really trying to hang on for the division crown as opposed to achieving much else in terms of playoff positioning. Fortunately, the Jags hold the tiebreakers to hold off the Texans and Colts for a while. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Buccaneers, vs. Panthers, at Titans

5. Cleveland Browns (9-5), wild card No. 1: They've won two in a row ... barely. But Sunday's escape from the Bears allows the Brownies to continue operating above the rest of the conference's wild-card fray. Remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. Jets, at Bengals

6. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6), wild card No. 2: QB2 Jake Browning's impressive performances the past three weeks, including Saturday's furious comeback against Minnesota, have them back in the projected postseason field – at least temporarily. A winless mark (0-4) against the division and 3-6 record in conference matchups could be very tough to overcome in the tiebreaker department. Yet victories over the Colts and Bills could also become positively decisive. Remaining schedule: at Steelers, at Chiefs, vs. Browns

7. Indianapolis Colts (8-6), wild card No. 3: Beating Pittsburgh was as huge a win for them as it was a loss for the Steelers. Indy is currently behind Cincinnati due to its Week 14 loss to the Bengals. be nice to get RB Jonathan Taylor back from thumb surgery soon. Remaining schedule: at Falcons, vs. Raiders, vs. Texans

8. Houston Texans (8-6), out of playoff field: Nice rebound from their Week 14 loss to the Jets, beating the Titans ... in Nashville ... in their throwback Houston Oilers uniforms ... and without concussed rookie QB C.J. Stroud. The regular-season finale at Indianapolis could be huge. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, vs. Titans, at Colts

9. Buffalo Bills (8-6), out of playoff field: They're officially on fire – on both sides of the ball following Sunday's 31-10 rout of the Cowboys. Despite all the adversity, on and off the field, there's a strong heartbeat here. And Buffalo started turning its recent wins into playoff progress Saturday, moving head of Denver and Pittsburgh in the overall AFC standings. The division crown is even a possibility if the Bills can sweep their final three games and hope Miami also loses to Dallas or Baltimore. Remaining schedule: at Chargers, vs. Patriots, at Dolphins

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7), out of playoff field: Their three-game losing streak may permanently disqualify them – head-to-head losses to Houston and Indianapolis also quite problematic, which also sums up Pittsburgh's issues under center. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens

11. Denver Broncos (7-7), out of playoff field: They got run out of the building Saturday night in Detroit, resembling an early season version of themselves devoid of playoff hope. A win would have vaulted the Broncos into the AFC's third wild-card spot. Now? A 4-5 record in AFC games parks them behind Pittsburgh ... and in danger of falling further. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, vs. Chargers, at Raiders

NFC playoff picture

y – 1. San Francisco 49ers (11-3), NFC West leaders: They became the first team to clinch a berth in Week 14 and, on Sunday, the first to wrap up a division in 2023. And, with wins in hand against the Eagles and Cowboys, the Niners continue to march toward home-field advantage ... but will get a stern test from Baltimore in Week 16. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Commanders, vs. Rams

x – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3), NFC East leaders: They play on Monday night but clinched a spot courtesy of the Niners' win Sunday. The Cowboys' loss also put Philly back atop a division, whose path the Eagles already controlled. Win out, against a very manageable schedule, and the reigning NFC champs will again be kings of the NFC East. Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, at Giants

3. Detroit Lions (10-4), NFC North leaders: Big get-right Saturday, the Lions pummeling Denver 42-17 a few hours after Minnesota lost in Cincinnati. A loss by Seattle on Monday will clinch a playoff spot for Detroit, and one more win (or Vikes loss) will secure the Lions' first-ever NFC North title. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, at Cowboys, vs. Vikings

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7), NFC South leaders: A huge win at Green Bay coupled with an Atlanta loss served the Bucs well, though New Orleans is still lurking with a 7-7 record and eyeing a season split in a few weeks. Remaining schedule: vs. Jaguars, vs. Saints, at Panthers

x – 5. Dallas Cowboys (10-4), wild card No. 1: A combination of losses by other teams secured a playoff for "America's Team" prior to kickoff Sunday ... and then the Cowboys went out and played like they had nothing at stake in an embarrassing defeat. They now need plenty of help to win the division and the NFC's No. 1 seed. Remaining schedule: at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Commanders

6. Minnesota Vikings (7-7), wild card No. 2: Heartbreaking loss at Cincinnati doesn't cost them any ground ... for now. However, entering Saturday, the Vikes could have won out and claimed the NFC North crown given their pair of upcoming dates with Detroit. They've lost that pathway. Their 6-3 record in conference games maintains this precarious perch. Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions

7. Los Angeles Rams (7-7), wild card No. 3: A win over Washington and a 5-4 mark in NFC games moves them ahead of the Saints into the NFC's last playoff spot. But LA will host New Orleans on Thursday for the honor of keeping it and the massive tiebreaker that comes with it. Remaining schedule: vs. Saints, at Giants, at 49ers

8. New Orleans Saints (7-7), out of playoff field: Their win over the Giants ultimately bumped them up three spots. But winning the NFC South still seems like New Orleans' best bet. Remaining schedule: at Rams, at Buccaneers, vs. Falcons

9. Seattle Seahawks (6-7), out of playoff field: That's five defeats in their past six outings, their latest loss at San Francisco coming with QB1 Geno Smith unable to play. Dropping both games to the Rams could be a lingering issue. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, at Titans, vs. Steelers, at Cardinals

10. Atlanta Falcons (6-8), out of playoff field: They've gone from fourth in the conference to here in a matter of two weeks, Sunday's loss at Carolina a potential backbreaker. Only a slim Week 2 defeat of the Pack leaves them this high. Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Bears, at Saints

11. Green Bay Packers (6-8), out of playoff field: After beating the Lions and Chiefs, they've lost to the Giants and Bucs. So much for benefiting from what was mathematically the league's easiest five-game schedule down the stretch. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at Vikings, vs. Bears

x – clinched playoff berthy – clinched division title

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.